This refrain has been heard several times before without really coming to pass. What this really seems to spell out is that teens and twenty-somethings may well be less married to the platform than the generations above that. Let’s face it, it’s hard to be doing cool new stuff when your parents or grandparents even are using the same thing as you.
Honestly though, through the true Facebook generation, what Facebook has done is capture the hearts and minds of people who might ordinarily not have cared about it. What started out as a side-effect has turned into an end-run, albeit a not completely planned out one. From a purely strategic point of view that should have us tipping our hats to Mr. Zuckerberg and is something that others could learn a lot from.
Don’t hold your breath for Facebook’s demise though, they won’t be losing too much sleep over this. They’ll retain many of their younger generation fans and most of their older generation ones. If the signs point to migration to other platforms, Facebook has the resources to acquire and be there waiting to welcome back some of the escapees all over again. Case in point, Instagram and there’ll be others too.
Mind you, maybe the NSA has inadvertently played a role here and undermined one of their best sources? :-)